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South Asia’s deadly Himalayan fault

* Experts warn of earthquakes ten times more powerful than the one in October 2005

Daily Times Monitor

LAHORE: Experts have long been warning of the danger of serious earthquakes in South Asia, and say more are likely.
According to BBC science correspondent Roland Pease, many earthquakes have struck along the southern flanks of the Himalayas over the past centuries - but not enough to account for all the steady, northward movement of India into Asia.
An earthquake in Pakistan is the result of India’s long-term, gradual, geological movement north into Asia at a speed of five centimetres a year - a millimetre per week.
Earthquakes happen when energy stored up along geological faults, like the Himalayan thrust, is suddenly released. The trouble is, the more time passes without seismic release, the more energy accumulates, making a giant earthquake more likely.
The October 2005 earthquake fitted in with the scientists’ expectations but, at 7.6 on the Richter scale, was relatively weak compared to what they feared.
Nevertheless, it was likely to have been very destructive, as the 2001 earthquake in the western Indian state of Gujarat was of a similar strength and killed 14,000 people.
But earthquakes ten times more powerful - capable of killing as many as a million people on the Ganges plain - must be expected, the experts warn.
What scientists cannot say is when the next one will strike, which makes it far more difficult for them to convey their warning.

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